So, I was reading MacWorld and saw an article entitled “Are we in a Post iPad Era”. I found it quite interesting, especially when compared to the much different Cult of Mac article “Should you buy a MacBook or iPad?”
To begin my article, I just want to show a few stats from 2023:
According to Canalys, Apple sold around 54 million iPads in 2023. According to Statista, Apple sold 21.9 million Macs. This is far greater than a 2 to 1 split in a year when Apple didn’t even release a new iPad model.
So, out of the gate, the numbers look more like a post-Mac era. Apple still has the greatest market share in the tablet market, while Macs make up less than 10 percent of the PC market. Let's be honest, the vast majority of "professionals" use Windows.
So lets look through some of the points in the article:
“But rumor has it Apple has been investigating foldable screen technology, which might conceivably someday allow you to carry an iPhone-sized device that folds out into an iPad-sized device. While it might not be a powerhouse in the class of the iPad Pro, it does mean a possible world where the iPhone might start eating away at the low end of the iPad market. After all, why carry two devices when one might do?”
So, even under this possible future change to the iPhone, it “might start eating away at the low end iPad market”. This would assume that those willing to spend whatever Apple charges for a foldable iPhone are the same folks buying the cheap iPad. Not sure how true that is and I am not sure a foldable from Apple would be all that popular for the people buying the low end tablet. According to a quick Google search, today, the largest unfolded Android phone on the market is 7.8 inches. That is small compared to 11 and 13 inch iPads. Maybe it will replace the mini for some people, but it won’t replace those that are buying larger iPads. Also, in his own prediction, it doesn’t spell a “Post iPad era”.
The next theory is , "a convertible MacBook, were Apple to make one, could threaten the iPad Pro. If a Mac can offer what an iPad can and more, then once again, why carry two devices?”
The numbers don’t fit this argument. Currently, given the numbers I posted above, Apple sells more than double (in some years triple) the number of iPads over Macs. In other words, there are a lot of people buying the iPad to be able to have a similar experience to their iPhones on a much bigger screen and with more features. It’s a familiar operating system to a lot more people than the Mac. As iPad gets better and better at “Pro” level apps, there will be less and less reason to carry two devices…. but that other device people will stop carrying will be the Mac laptop. As I have said before, the Mac is the niche’ device, not the iPad. Also, as the Cult of Mac post I linked above noted, currently, the iPad is the right choice for most people. That won't change with a Mac going to touch unless it's simply a rip off of the app design of the iPad with the ability to install pro level Mac apps. I would argue that this would still be an iPad. A Mac would be more like a Mac interface and it isn't built around touch.
The better argument is that Apple figures out a way for the iPad to handle more pro level apps and it becomes the portable Apple device while they push you to the Mac desktops for more extreme level work. Personally, I already prefer the convertible iPad for my on the go work.
The perfect on the go device for me would be the iPad that also runs MacOS in Parallels (or similar Apple software) or via dual boot. This would hurt Mac numbers and improve iPad numbers. This would be the easiest route for Apple to take, but Apple obviously wants us to buy two devices. If they decide on one device for portable, they will continue developing iPad in that direction or simply add MacOS as an option to certain versions...and I suspect those versions won't be cheap. Look at what you have to pay to get their matte iPad display!
And the final argument is almost laughable at this point, “Take the Apple Vision Pro, which more than a few early reviewers have described as “an iPad you wear on your face.” One of the device’s more applauded uses is as an immersive media player, something that has traditionally been one of the iPad’s strengths. Might a more affordable and more ergonomic Vision Pro successor steal some of the iPad’s thunder?”
We are a long, long way away from these heavy goggles replacing anything. That’s the problem with the AVP, they replace nothing unless you are a loner. If they make them cheaper, if they make them lighter, etc… they might occupy more of a niche in the market place, but as they are now, we are a long way from them replacing anything, much less a tablet where you are still in the room with your loved ones and not wearing uncomfortable, heavy gear on your face. Also, as they shrink the goggles and make it more approachable, can they keep the price down?
I have already seen people discuss the most spec’d out iPad with Apple Case and Apple Magic Keyboard, coming into the $3000 range. However, that isn’t a very good comparison unless a majority of people are going with this setup. I have to think that the number of people going with this specific setup is minuscule, and even then, it's around a $1000 less than the best Vision Pro. The iPads range in price from $350-1299 in their base configurations..the base configuration of the AVP is closer to $3500. This is ten times more than the base iPad. No, it won't be replacing the iPad with anything called AVP. Apple would need a new set of glasses that more likely than not will plug into an iPad rather than replacing it to get to the those prices.
He wraps up the article with this point “But it’s also hard to overcome the feeling that Apple’s slow development on the software side has hamstrung the iPad’s future with a steadfastness that borders on pathological.”
While I would love to see Apple make changes faster on the iPad, it has changed quite a bit over the years, much more than any other product they have updated. They added Pencil input, Keyboard support, Stage Manager, External display support, Universal control, Screen Mirroring, using it as a monitor with a capture device, mobile Final Cut, Logic, thunderbolt, tandem OLED, etc. It isn’t like they stopped developing for it.
Also, this article is being written now because Apple released these iPads with essentially last year's software. The next iPadOS won’t be available until the fall (many features will be announced at WWDC in less than a month). Let's wait and see what they changed. I don't expect them to just say, "we are skipping updates this year because the iPad is perfect the way it is". No, development of the OS will continue, apps like Logic, Final Cut, ProCreate, will get even better on the iPad (they already announced this much) and it will continue to fill the gaps for that one portable computer that fits most of the market. I expect there will still be uses for Mac laptops (especially MBPs), but I can personally get by with a desktop Mac or PC now and use only the iPad for my portable needs. I expect that with the next iPadOS update, even more people will fit this category.
To begin my article, I just want to show a few stats from 2023:
According to Canalys, Apple sold around 54 million iPads in 2023. According to Statista, Apple sold 21.9 million Macs. This is far greater than a 2 to 1 split in a year when Apple didn’t even release a new iPad model.
So, out of the gate, the numbers look more like a post-Mac era. Apple still has the greatest market share in the tablet market, while Macs make up less than 10 percent of the PC market. Let's be honest, the vast majority of "professionals" use Windows.
So lets look through some of the points in the article:
“But rumor has it Apple has been investigating foldable screen technology, which might conceivably someday allow you to carry an iPhone-sized device that folds out into an iPad-sized device. While it might not be a powerhouse in the class of the iPad Pro, it does mean a possible world where the iPhone might start eating away at the low end of the iPad market. After all, why carry two devices when one might do?”
So, even under this possible future change to the iPhone, it “might start eating away at the low end iPad market”. This would assume that those willing to spend whatever Apple charges for a foldable iPhone are the same folks buying the cheap iPad. Not sure how true that is and I am not sure a foldable from Apple would be all that popular for the people buying the low end tablet. According to a quick Google search, today, the largest unfolded Android phone on the market is 7.8 inches. That is small compared to 11 and 13 inch iPads. Maybe it will replace the mini for some people, but it won’t replace those that are buying larger iPads. Also, in his own prediction, it doesn’t spell a “Post iPad era”.
The next theory is , "a convertible MacBook, were Apple to make one, could threaten the iPad Pro. If a Mac can offer what an iPad can and more, then once again, why carry two devices?”
The numbers don’t fit this argument. Currently, given the numbers I posted above, Apple sells more than double (in some years triple) the number of iPads over Macs. In other words, there are a lot of people buying the iPad to be able to have a similar experience to their iPhones on a much bigger screen and with more features. It’s a familiar operating system to a lot more people than the Mac. As iPad gets better and better at “Pro” level apps, there will be less and less reason to carry two devices…. but that other device people will stop carrying will be the Mac laptop. As I have said before, the Mac is the niche’ device, not the iPad. Also, as the Cult of Mac post I linked above noted, currently, the iPad is the right choice for most people. That won't change with a Mac going to touch unless it's simply a rip off of the app design of the iPad with the ability to install pro level Mac apps. I would argue that this would still be an iPad. A Mac would be more like a Mac interface and it isn't built around touch.
The better argument is that Apple figures out a way for the iPad to handle more pro level apps and it becomes the portable Apple device while they push you to the Mac desktops for more extreme level work. Personally, I already prefer the convertible iPad for my on the go work.
The perfect on the go device for me would be the iPad that also runs MacOS in Parallels (or similar Apple software) or via dual boot. This would hurt Mac numbers and improve iPad numbers. This would be the easiest route for Apple to take, but Apple obviously wants us to buy two devices. If they decide on one device for portable, they will continue developing iPad in that direction or simply add MacOS as an option to certain versions...and I suspect those versions won't be cheap. Look at what you have to pay to get their matte iPad display!
And the final argument is almost laughable at this point, “Take the Apple Vision Pro, which more than a few early reviewers have described as “an iPad you wear on your face.” One of the device’s more applauded uses is as an immersive media player, something that has traditionally been one of the iPad’s strengths. Might a more affordable and more ergonomic Vision Pro successor steal some of the iPad’s thunder?”
We are a long, long way away from these heavy goggles replacing anything. That’s the problem with the AVP, they replace nothing unless you are a loner. If they make them cheaper, if they make them lighter, etc… they might occupy more of a niche in the market place, but as they are now, we are a long way from them replacing anything, much less a tablet where you are still in the room with your loved ones and not wearing uncomfortable, heavy gear on your face. Also, as they shrink the goggles and make it more approachable, can they keep the price down?
I have already seen people discuss the most spec’d out iPad with Apple Case and Apple Magic Keyboard, coming into the $3000 range. However, that isn’t a very good comparison unless a majority of people are going with this setup. I have to think that the number of people going with this specific setup is minuscule, and even then, it's around a $1000 less than the best Vision Pro. The iPads range in price from $350-1299 in their base configurations..the base configuration of the AVP is closer to $3500. This is ten times more than the base iPad. No, it won't be replacing the iPad with anything called AVP. Apple would need a new set of glasses that more likely than not will plug into an iPad rather than replacing it to get to the those prices.
He wraps up the article with this point “But it’s also hard to overcome the feeling that Apple’s slow development on the software side has hamstrung the iPad’s future with a steadfastness that borders on pathological.”
While I would love to see Apple make changes faster on the iPad, it has changed quite a bit over the years, much more than any other product they have updated. They added Pencil input, Keyboard support, Stage Manager, External display support, Universal control, Screen Mirroring, using it as a monitor with a capture device, mobile Final Cut, Logic, thunderbolt, tandem OLED, etc. It isn’t like they stopped developing for it.
Also, this article is being written now because Apple released these iPads with essentially last year's software. The next iPadOS won’t be available until the fall (many features will be announced at WWDC in less than a month). Let's wait and see what they changed. I don't expect them to just say, "we are skipping updates this year because the iPad is perfect the way it is". No, development of the OS will continue, apps like Logic, Final Cut, ProCreate, will get even better on the iPad (they already announced this much) and it will continue to fill the gaps for that one portable computer that fits most of the market. I expect there will still be uses for Mac laptops (especially MBPs), but I can personally get by with a desktop Mac or PC now and use only the iPad for my portable needs. I expect that with the next iPadOS update, even more people will fit this category.
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